Al Okhdood 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Al Okhdood welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 14 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Okhdood 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 20%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.64 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.735 / defence 1.197 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.512 / defence 0.639. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.402. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.639 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.512 — the away xG of 2.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 Al Okhdood games / 35 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 7% | Draw 14% | Al-Ittihad FC 79%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 14.29 | Draw 7.14 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.27. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 7% | Draw 14% | Al-Ittihad FC 79% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Okhdood 0.64 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.54 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.735 / def 1.197 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.512 / def 0.639 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
2.54
Al-Ittihad FC xG
44%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 14 September 2023 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Okhdood 0 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 7% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 79% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (0.73) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 0.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 2.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-3 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
7%
13.83
14%
7.03
79%
1.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
11.4%
Away win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.18
2.54
Al-Ittihad FC xG
13.83
7%
Home win
7.03
14%
Draw
1.27
79%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
8%
12.65
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
1%
175.03
41%
2.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 10.6 | 13.4 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 2.54 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Okhdood come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.60 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 3.00 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 20%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 80% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 (2.40 PPG).
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 80%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Al-Ittihad FC won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Okhdood 40% BTTS, Al-Ittihad FC 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Al Okhdood) and 80% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 80%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 20% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 80% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Okhdood 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Okhdood 0-1 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.64 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.54 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.73 / defence 1.20 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.51 / defence 0.64, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 7% | Draw 14% | Al-Ittihad FC 79%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 79%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 20%, Al-Ittihad FC 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.