Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 8W 1D 1L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 0 for Al-Fateh and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 5–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 31% versus Al-Fateh 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Al-Fateh 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.86 xG and Al-Fateh 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.249 / defence 0.934 | Al-Fateh attack 1.264 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.448. Al-Fateh have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Al-Ittihad FC games / 36 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.38 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fateh 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 6.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad FC 20% | Al-Fateh 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.86 / Al-Fateh 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.249 / def 0.934 | Al-Fateh attack 1.264 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Al-Fateh xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 21 September 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
42%
2.37
22%
4.55
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.57
1.71
Al-Fateh xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
6%
18.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.71 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 36 games, going 27W 6D 3L for 2.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.50 PPG from 36 outings (16W 6D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 13W 2D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.53 points per game from 17 outings (8W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.47 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.72 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 27W 6D 3L in their last 36 games (2.42 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 16W 6D 14L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.41 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 18%, Al-Fateh 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Al-Ittihad FC and 82% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 76% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 59% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 82% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Fateh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fateh 2-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.86 xG and Al-Fateh 1.71 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Al-Fateh attack 1.26 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 36%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 58%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.