Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Thursday 21 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Fateh — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Al-Fateh have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 0 for Al-Fateh and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 6.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Al-Ittihad FC 5–1 Al-Fateh — a Al-Ittihad FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 31% versus Al-Fateh 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Al-Fateh 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.86 xG and Al-Fateh 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.249 / defence 0.934 | Al-Fateh attack 1.264 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.448. Al-Fateh have an above-average attack rating of 1.264, which lifts their away xG to 1.71. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 36 games and Al-Fateh's last 36.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.37 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fateh 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.86 / 1.71) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 6.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 20% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 7 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.86 / Al-Fateh 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.249 / def 0.934 | Al-Fateh attack 1.264 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Al-Fateh xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday 21 September 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 7) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 36 games and Al-Fateh's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
42%
2.37
22%
4.55
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.57
1.71
Al-Fateh xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
6%
18.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.71 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 36 games, going 27W 6D 3L for 2.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.50 PPG from 36 outings (16W 6D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 13W 2D 2L across their last 17 home games, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.53 points per game from their last 17 away games (8W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.47 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.72 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 27W 6D 3L in their last 36 games (2.42 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 16W 6D 14L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.41 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Fateh 1-5 Al-Ittihad FC.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Al-Fateh 0-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 18%, Al-Fateh 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Al-Ittihad FC and 82% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 76% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 59% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 82% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 82% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Fateh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fateh 2-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.86 xG and Al-Fateh 1.71 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Al-Fateh attack 1.26 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 36%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 58%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.