Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al Riyadh to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Friday 15 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 5 games, Al Riyadh have recorded 1W 1D 3L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al Riyadh trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% versus Al Riyadh 20%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Riyadh 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 xG and Al Riyadh 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.172 / defence 0.834 | Al Riyadh attack 0.768 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.392. Al Riyadh's defence rating of 1.362 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output up. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.768 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 35 games and Al Riyadh's last 5.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.50 | Draw 5.22 | Al Riyadh 7.05. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (67%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 5 games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 20% (last 5 games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 6 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 / Al Riyadh 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.172 / def 0.834 | Al Riyadh attack 0.768 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al Riyadh xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh FAQs
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 15 September 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 6) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 67% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.17) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 35 games and Al Riyadh's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.22
14%
7.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.07
0.89
Al Riyadh xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
7.05
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
11%
8.80
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
62.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.89 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 4W 1D 0L from 5 games, a 2.60 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al Riyadh in 20%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Home) vs Al Riyadh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Riyadh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Riyadh in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 25 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Sep 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6-1 Al Riyadh.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
0
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, Al Riyadh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2026: Al Riyadh 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, Al Riyadh 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 60% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Riyadh in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 20% of Al Riyadh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 60% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 80% of Al Riyadh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Riyadh 6-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 xG and Al Riyadh 0.89 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.83 against Al Riyadh attack 0.77 / defence 1.36, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 14%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, Al Riyadh 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hilal Saudi FC scored 6 against a 2.80 average — above their attacking norm. Al Riyadh shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.