Al Okhdood 0-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Okhdood — All Games: 1W 1D 4L from 6 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.67 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Okhdood at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.67 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Al Khaleej Saihat's 1.20 PPG return is 0.53 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.67 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Okhdood 33% and Al Khaleej Saihat 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 17% | Al Khaleej Saihat 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.92 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.639 / defence 1.040 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.039 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.438. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Al Okhdood games / 36 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1.92. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 33% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Okhdood 0.92 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.639 / def 1.040 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.039 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Okhdood 0 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 22% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.64x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
22%
4.50
26%
3.92
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.47
1.55
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
4.50
22%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
5%
21.29
21%
4.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.1 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.55 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 1W 1D 4L from 6 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 3L across 6 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Okhdood on 0.67 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.83 PPG overall record — Al Khaleej Saihat travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Khaleej Saihat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 100%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.00 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al Okhdood 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Okhdood at 33%, Al Khaleej Saihat at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al Okhdood) and 67% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al Okhdood's games and 100% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 67% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Khaleej Saihat edge out Al Okhdood 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Okhdood 0-1 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.92 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.55 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.64 / defence 1.04 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 52%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 17%, Al Khaleej Saihat 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.67 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.