Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hazm host Al Taee at Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taee stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al Taee have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Hazm at 0.40 PPG versus Al Taee's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hazm register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Taee in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Hazm, 2 for Al Taee and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2022, ended 0–3 with Al Taee winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al Taee in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Hazm 60% | Al Taee 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hazm 40% | Al Taee 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.20 xG and Al Taee 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.751 / defence 1.465 | Al Taee attack 0.761 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.430. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Al-Hazm games / 35 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 25% | Al Taee 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Al Taee 2.13. Al Taee hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taee are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taee offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 60% | Al Taee 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 25% | Al Taee 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Hazm 1.20 / Al Taee 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.751 / def 1.465 | Al Taee attack 0.761 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Al Taee xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taee kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taee?
Al-Hazm 1 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 29% chance of winning, Al Taee a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taee?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 2W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Taee in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Al Taee (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.75x the league average against Al Taee's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
29%
3.49
25%
4.04
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.79
1.59
Al Taee xG
3.49
29%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
6%
17.17
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.59 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hazm come into this having played 5 games, going 0W 2D 3L for 0.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taee carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al Taee in 0%.
Defensively: Al Taee in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al Taee
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Al-Hazm or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al Taee in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al Taee runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jun 2022, when Al Taee won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
3
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taee?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Taee have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Al Taee 1-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Hazm 60% BTTS, Al Taee 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Al-Hazm and 20% for Al Taee.
On the defensive side: Al Taee in 40%; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 40% of games; Al Taee in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 0% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 20% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm and Al Taee share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Al-Hazm and Al Taee drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.20 xG and Al Taee 1.59 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.75 / defence 1.47 against Al Taee attack 0.76 / defence 1.13, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 25% | Al Taee 47%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 40%, Al Taee 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taee's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taee arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hazm conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.