Abha 1-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 41%, yet in-form Al-Ettifaq provide a compelling counter-argument — this Abha vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Ettifaq travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Abha in Pro League (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Abha stand at 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Abha have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Abha are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ettifaq — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Abha have won 2, Al-Ettifaq 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 May 2023, ended Abha 2–1 Al-Ettifaq — a Abha win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Abha in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 54% versus Al-Ettifaq 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 63% | Al-Ettifaq 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.30 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 1.025 / defence 0.955 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.817 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.408. Data: built from Abha's last 35 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 35.
Result probabilities: Abha 41% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 31%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.44 | Draw 3.63 | Al-Ettifaq 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Abha are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Abha 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 6 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 41% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Abha 1.30 / Al-Ettifaq 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 1.025 / def 0.955 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.817 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Abha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Abha vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Abha vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Abha vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Abha 1 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Abha vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Abha vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 6) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 41% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Abha and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Abha vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Abha's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Abha's last 35 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.63
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Abha xG
Total xG
2.40
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Abha vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Abha and 1.10 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Abha's recent record stands at 12W 3D 20L from 35 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 14L across 35 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.11 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Abha have managed 8W 3D 6L from their last 17 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 4W 4D 9L across their last 17 away games, a 0.94 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ettifaq's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.03 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Abha (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Abha
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Abha vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Abha and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 12W 3D 20L in their last 35 games (1.11 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 13W 8D 14L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Abha's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ettifaq have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Mar 2024, when Al-Ettifaq won Al-Ettifaq 3-0 Abha.
Abha's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Abha
1
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Abha vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Abha have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Abha 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 65%, Al-Ettifaq 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Abha) and 35% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Abha vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Abha and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Abha's recent matches and 29% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Abha and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Abha's recent games and 35% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Abha's recent matches and 76% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Abha 1-3 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.30 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.82 / defence 0.89, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 41% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 31%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 63%, Al-Ettifaq 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.11 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.