Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Okhdood face Al-Fateh.

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Full Analysis

Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City plays host to Al Okhdood versus Al-Fateh in Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 17:55 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al Okhdood have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Al Okhdood are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fateh (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Fateh away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for Al Okhdood against 0.70 for Al-Fateh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al Okhdood, 3 for Al-Fateh and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2026, ended Al Okhdood 1–2 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fateh win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al-Fateh 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 52% | Al-Fateh 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.30 xG and Al-Fateh 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.744 / defence 1.522 | Al-Fateh attack 0.971 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.428. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.744 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.522 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fateh's projected output up. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 60 games and Al-Fateh's last 60.

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.32 | Draw 4.80 | Al-Fateh 1.78. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.30 / 2.11) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 70% (last 10 away games).

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