Al-Nassr 5-2 Al Najma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 84% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al Najma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al Najma at King Saud University Stadium in Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Friday 3 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Nassr stand at 10W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.10 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Al-Nassr's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Al Najma — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Najma's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 2.60 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Nassr, 0 for Al Najma and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2026, ended Al-Nassr 5–0 Al Najma — a Al-Nassr win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Al Najma trading profile (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 46% versus Al Najma 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 69% | Al Najma 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.81 xG and Al Najma 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.348 / defence 0.684 | Al Najma attack 0.570 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.425. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack rating of 1.348 — their 2.81 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al Najma's defence rating of 1.381 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Nassr's projected output up. Al Najma's attack rating of 0.570 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.56. Al-Nassr have a tight defence (rating 0.684), which is pulling Al Najma's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 60 games and Al Najma's last 26.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 84% | Draw 12% | Al Najma 5%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.20 | Draw 8.66 | Al Najma 20.92. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (84%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 84% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al Najma's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Najma 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Najma | Competition: Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 84% | Draw 12% | Al Najma 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Al-Nassr 2.81 / Al Najma 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.348 / def 0.684 | Al Najma attack 0.570 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (84%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Al Najma xG
40%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Najma FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Najma kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Najma kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Najma?
Al-Nassr 5 - 2 Al Najma.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Najma being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Najma part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Najma is a Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Najma?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 84% chance of winning, Al Najma a 5% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Najma?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Najma will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Najma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Al Najma's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.81. The same calculation in reverse, Al Najma's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 60 games and Al Najma's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
84%
1.20
12%
8.66
5%
20.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.37
0.56
Al Najma xG
1.20
84%
Home win
8.66
12%
Draw
20.92
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
57%
1.74
6%
16.66
Win to Nil
48%
2.08
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Najma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Najma?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Najma expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.56 for Al Najma, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Najma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.58 PPG on a 22W 1D 3L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Al Najma's form line: 1W 5D 20L from 26 games, 0.31 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 2.27 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Najma.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.75 PPG from their last 12 home games (11W 0D 1L).
On the road, Al Najma have gone 0W 2D 10L from their last 12 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.73 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Al Najma are on 0.88 scored and 2.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma in 65%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Najma
Blended
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Al Najma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Najma
Blended
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Najma Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Najma in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 22W 1D 3L in their last 26 games (2.58 PPG), while Al Najma have gone 1W 5D 20L in their last 26 (0.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Najma away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.75 PPG; Al Najma away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Najma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Al Najma in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2026. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Al Najma
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Najma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Najma?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 2, Al Najma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Najma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Al-Nassr 5-2 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Najma?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 50%, Al Najma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Nassr and 67% for Al Najma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Najma in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Najma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al Najma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Al Najma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 50% of Al Najma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Nassr and Al Najma matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Nassr's matches and 67% of Al Najma's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Najma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 67% of Al Najma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Al Najma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Najma 5-2 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.81 xG and Al Najma 0.56 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Najma outscored their 0.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.35 / defence 0.68 against Al Najma attack 0.57 / defence 1.38, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 84% | Draw 12% | Al Najma 5%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 84%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al Najma 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Najma's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 0.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Najma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.