Al Khaleej Saihat 2-3 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Kholood travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Kholood stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al Kholood's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al Khaleej Saihat are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Khaleej Saihat, 1 for Al Kholood and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2025, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 1–2 Al Kholood — a Al Kholood win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Kholood trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 62% versus Al Kholood 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 62% | Al Kholood 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.46 xG and Al Kholood 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.994 / defence 0.848 | Al Kholood attack 1.054 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.378. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 56 games and Al Kholood's last 56.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 42% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.38 | Draw 3.80 | Al Kholood 3.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 home games and Al Kholood's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Kholood 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 42% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.46 / Al Kholood 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.994 / def 0.848 | Al Kholood attack 1.054 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al Kholood xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood FAQs
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood?
Al Khaleej Saihat 2 - 3 Al Kholood.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 42% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.99) and Al Kholood's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 56 games and Al Kholood's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.80
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.69
1.23
Al Kholood xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.23 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 17W 13D 26L from 56 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Al Kholood, meanwhile, have gone 18W 5D 33L across 56 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.14 PPG, Al Kholood on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 8W 6D 13L from their last 27 home games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Kholood's away record stands at 7W 3D 17L across their last 27 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.23 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat (Home) vs Al Kholood (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood Form FAQs
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 13D 26L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 18W 5D 33L in their last 56 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al Kholood away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.11 PPG; Al Kholood away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, Al Kholood have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Al Kholood 2-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 44%, Al Kholood 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 59% (Al Kholood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 37% of games; Al Kholood in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 59% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 59% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 67% of Al Kholood's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-3 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.46 xG and Al Kholood 1.23 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Kholood outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.99 / defence 0.85 against Al Kholood attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 42% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 32%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al Kholood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 62%, Al Kholood 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.14 PPG, Al Kholood 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.