Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ettifaq make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:55 UK time.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ettifaq away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.10 for Al-Ettifaq. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Jan 2026, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 2–1 Al-Ettifaq — a Al Khaleej Saihat win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 62% versus Al-Ettifaq 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 63% | Al-Ettifaq 55%). Note also that Al-Ettifaq surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Al Khaleej Saihat recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.62 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.003 / defence 1.100 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.887 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.421. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 65 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 65.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.36 | Draw 3.90 | Al-Ettifaq 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 32 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:55 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.62 / Al-Ettifaq 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.003 / def 1.100 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.887 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 17:55 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 5 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 32) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 42% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.89x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 65 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.90
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.01
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.39 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 14D 31L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.48 PPG from 65 outings (27W 15D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.48 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 10W 6D 16L across their last 32 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.53 points per game from their last 32 away games (14W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.35 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Al Khaleej Saihat (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Khaleej Saihat
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 20W 14D 31L in their last 65 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 27W 15D 23L in their last 65 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.12 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Ettifaq on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
5
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 41% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al-Ettifaq 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 56% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 62% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 56% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 78% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ettifaq run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.62 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.39 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 32%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 63%, Al-Ettifaq 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.14 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.