Al Khaleej Saihat 1-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 51%, yet in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 17 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 5W 1D 4L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Pro League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ahli Jeddah — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.74 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.056 / defence 1.058 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.301. Data: 31 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 51% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.85. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Khaleej Saihat are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 51% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.74 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.056 / def 1.058 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 17 August 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 51% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Khaleej Saihat's attack at 1.06x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.23
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.91
1.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
18%
5.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
4%
22.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.17 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-3 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.74 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.17 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 51% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 26%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Al-Ahli Jeddah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 100%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.