Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm meet at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League (matchday 1). This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ahli Jeddah edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Jan 2022, ended Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–0 Al-Hazm — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 xG and Al-Hazm 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Hazm attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.324. Data: built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 0 games and Al-Hazm's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.45 | Draw 3.92 | Al-Hazm 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Al-Ahli Jeddah 0 games, Al-Hazm 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 / Al-Hazm 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Hazm attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al-Hazm xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm FAQs
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 11 August 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm is a Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 41% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.85x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 0 games and Al-Hazm's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
41%
2.45
25%
3.92
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.74
1.29
Al-Hazm xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.29 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pre-Season
Al-Hazm
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Al-Ahli Jeddah (Home) vs Al-Hazm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pre-Season
Al-Hazm
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won Al-Hazm 0-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hazm 3-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 xG and Al-Hazm 1.29 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Hazm attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 34%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.