Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Okhdood make the trip to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Thursday 24 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 2W 0D 0L across 2 Pro League fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Okhdood have collected 0.50 PPG across 2 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 3.00 PPG return is 2.50 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Al Okhdood in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.53 xG and Al Okhdood 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.064 / defence 1.107 | Al Okhdood attack 0.838 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.389. Data: 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 2 Al Okhdood games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Al Okhdood 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.53 / Al Okhdood 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.064 / def 1.107 | Al Okhdood attack 0.838 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al Okhdood xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 24 August 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 43% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W. Al Okhdood (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.84x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
43%
2.33
25%
4.00
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.82
1.29
Al Okhdood xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
7%
14.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.29 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.50 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al Okhdood in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al Okhdood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
2
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Okhdood have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Okhdood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 100% of Al Okhdood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 50% of Al Okhdood's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Okhdood 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Okhdood 1-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.53 xG and Al Okhdood 1.29 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against Al Okhdood attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 32%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 100%, Al Okhdood 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ahli Jeddah managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.