Al-Fayha 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Fayha face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League (matchday 1). Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fayha have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Al-Fayha's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 away games) — Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al-Fayha, 1 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2023, ended Al-Fayha 0–3 Al Khaleej Saihat — a Al Khaleej Saihat win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 47% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 47% | Al Khaleej Saihat 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.20 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.894 / defence 1.009 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.944 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.277. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 30 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.79 | Draw 3.63 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Khaleej Saihat 20% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Al-Fayha 30 games, Al Khaleej Saihat 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Al-Fayha 1.20 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.894 / def 1.009 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.944 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat FAQs
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Fayha 3 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 36% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.89x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.94x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Al-Fayha's last 30 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.63
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.41
1.22
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.22 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 8W 9D 13L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 9W 4D 17L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.03 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.13 PPG from their last 15 home games (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 2D 10L from their last 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.00 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Pre-Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Pre-Season
Al-Fayha (Home) vs Al Khaleej Saihat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fayha
Pre-Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Pre-Season
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 9W 4D 17L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.13 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat, the earliest from December 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 15 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Khaleej Saihat won Al-Fayha 0-3 Al Khaleej Saihat on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
4
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fayha have won 3, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 October 2026: Al Khaleej Saihat 2-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Al-Fayha) and 20% (Al Khaleej Saihat) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Fayha) and 33% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha have failed to score in 40% of games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 20% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 33% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 60% of Al Khaleej Saihat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Khaleej Saihat 3-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.20 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.22 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 37%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 47%, Al Khaleej Saihat 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.10 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.