Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al Taee.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Taee (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taee away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (2.50 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 3W, Al Taee 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 13% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
Al Taee — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 32% versus Al Taee 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Al Taee 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.81 xG and Al Taee 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.156 / defence 0.748 | Al Taee attack 1.012 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.383. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 Al-Ittihad FC games / 31 Al Taee games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Draw 23% | Al Taee 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Al Taee 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad FC 10% | Al Taee 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Draw 23% | Al Taee 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.81 / Al Taee 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.156 / def 0.748 | Al Taee attack 1.012 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al Taee xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 55% chance of winning, Al Taee a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Al Taee (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.16x the league average against Al Taee's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (1.01x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.35
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.05
Al Taee xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
4%
28.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.05 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 23W 6D 2L from 31 games, a 2.42 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taee, meanwhile, have gone 11W 4D 16L across 31 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.23 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Taee heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 12W 2D 1L from 15 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taee's away record stands at 3W 3D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.42 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.35 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al Taee
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 23W 6D 2L in their last 31 games (2.42 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 11W 4D 16L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.53 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their recent games, Al Taee in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 0-3 on 7 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Taee have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2024, when Al Taee 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 13%, Al Taee 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 67% (Al Taee). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Al Taee in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 13% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 60% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 67% of Al Taee's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taee 2-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.81 xG and Al Taee 1.05 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Taee landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.75 against Al Taee attack 1.01 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Draw 23% | Al Taee 22%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 58%, Al Taee 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taee's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.