Al-Hazm 0-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Hazm welcome Al-Ettifaq to Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Friday 18 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 1 matches, Al-Hazm stand at 0W 0D 1L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Al-Ettifaq have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ettifaq are 1.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Al-Hazm, 2 for Al-Ettifaq and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2022, ended Al-Hazm 2–5 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Ettifaq win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.21 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.867 / defence 1.150 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.879 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.399. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 1 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 32% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.12 | Draw 3.83 | Al-Ettifaq 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (Al-Hazm's last 1 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's sample (Al-Hazm 1 games, Al-Ettifaq 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 2 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 32% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Al-Hazm 1.21 / Al-Ettifaq 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.867 / def 1.150 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.879 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al-Ettifaq xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 18 August 2023 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hazm 0 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 2) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 32% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Hazm's last 1 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
32%
3.12
26%
3.83
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.62
1.41
Al-Ettifaq xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
8%
12.82
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.41 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Ettifaq in 100%.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Hazm (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Nov 2021, when Al-Ettifaq won Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Al-Hazm 3-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Hazm's games and 100% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Hazm's matches and 100% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 100% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Hazm 0-2 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.21 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.41 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 32% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 42%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 100%, Al-Ettifaq 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hazm managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.