Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 55% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Al-Hazm travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026 at 18:15 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 0D 3L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Hazm have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Hazm away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

Al-Ittihad FC hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Al-Hazm and 2 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2026, ended Al-Ittihad FC 1–1 Al-Hazm — a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 58% and Al-Hazm 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Al-Hazm 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 xG and Al-Hazm 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.859 / defence 0.722 | Al-Hazm attack 0.733 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.433. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Al-Ittihad FC have a tight defence (rating 0.722), which is pulling Al-Hazm's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 60 games and Al-Hazm's last 26.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.83 | Draw 3.72 | Al-Hazm 5.40. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Ittihad FC 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 60% (last 10 away games).

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