Al-Hazm 0-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Damac (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Damac travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 April 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's home record at Ar-Rass Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Damac's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al-Hazm's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hazm register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Damac in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Damac, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Al-Hazm.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2023, ended 1–4 with Damac winning.
It is worth noting that Damac have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Damac in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 64% and Damac 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 60% | Damac 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.98 xG and Damac 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.722 / defence 1.568 | Damac attack 0.880 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.505. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Al-Hazm games / 55 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 16% | Draw 22% | Damac 62%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Damac 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Damac (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 60% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 16% | Draw 22% | Damac 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Hazm 0.98 / Damac 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.722 / def 1.568 | Damac attack 0.880 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.505 • Poisson stance: Damac (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Damac xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Damac kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Damac kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Al-Hazm 0 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Damac part of?
Al-Hazm vs Damac is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 16% chance of winning, Damac a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Hazm and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Damac?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 0 | Damac 3W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Damac in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Damac (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.72) and Damac's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
16%
6.22
22%
4.57
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.05
2.08
Damac xG
6.22
16%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
13%
7.99
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
2%
49.65
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.08 for Damac, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 2W 9D 14L from 25 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 9L across 25 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Damac by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 2W 2D 8L from 12 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 3W 3D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.52 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.52 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 9D 14L in their last 25 games (0.60 PPG), while Damac have gone 9W 7D 9L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Damac away?
Damac's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.67 PPG; Damac away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2023, when Damac won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Damac have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Damac see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 58%, Damac 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Hazm) and 42% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Hazm's games and 58% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 42% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Damac in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Hazm's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Al-Hazm and Damac drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.98 xG and Damac 2.08 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Damac landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.72 / defence 1.57 against Damac attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 16% | Draw 22% | Damac 62%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 60%, Damac 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.