Damac 0-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Al-Nassr travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Damac. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 April 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Damac are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's away record: 9W 0D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Nassr — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Al-Nassr have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 5 encounters against Damac's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Damac trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 54% versus Al-Nassr 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 48% | Al-Nassr 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.05 xG and Al-Nassr 2.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.913 / defence 0.898 | Al-Nassr attack 1.834 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.522. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.834 — the away xG of 2.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Damac games / 56 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 14% | Draw 17% | Al-Nassr 69%. Fair-value odds: Damac 7.14 | Draw 5.88 | Al-Nassr 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.05 / 2.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Damac 40% | Al-Nassr 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 14% | Draw 17% | Al-Nassr 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 60% | xG Damac 1.05 / Al-Nassr 2.51 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.913 / def 0.898 | Al-Nassr attack 1.834 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Damac xG
Expected Goals
2.51
Al-Nassr xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Damac vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Damac 0 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Damac vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Nassr part of?
Damac vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 14% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 69% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Damac and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Nassr?
Record (5 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 5W.
What form are Damac and Al-Nassr in?
Damac (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Damac's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 2.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
14%
7.15
17%
5.87
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.9%
Away win
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Damac xG
Total xG
3.56
2.51
Al-Nassr xG
7.15
14%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
8%
12.27
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
1%
87.75
24%
4.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Damac and 2.51 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac come into this having played 56 games, going 18W 17D 21L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.30 PPG from 56 outings (40W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Damac's home form reads 11W 9D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.18 points per game from 28 outings (19W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.54 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 18W 17D 21L in their last 56 games (1.27 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 40W 9D 7L in their last 56 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2021, when Al-Nassr won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Damac
0
Draws
10
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 54%, Al-Nassr 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Damac) and 68% (Al-Nassr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Damac's recent matches and 43% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Damac's matches and 68% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Damac and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Damac 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Damac 0-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.05 xG and Al-Nassr 2.51 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Damac fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against Al-Nassr attack 1.83 / defence 0.81, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 14% | Draw 17% | Al-Nassr 69%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al-Nassr 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.