Al-Raed 0-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al Khaleej Saihat at Al Raid Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed at Al Raid Club Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.50 PPG versus Al Khaleej Saihat's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Raed have won 0, Al Khaleej Saihat 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 58% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 67% | Al Khaleej Saihat 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.11 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.874 / defence 0.985 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.806 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.505. Data: 55 Al-Raed games / 55 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 33% | Draw 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 60% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Raid Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 33% | Draw 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Raed 1.11 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.874 / def 0.985 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.806 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.505 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Raed 0 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 33% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 2 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
33%
3.05
30%
3.29
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.31
1.19
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.19 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed come into this having played 55 games, going 16W 13D 26L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.13 PPG from 55 outings (17W 11D 27L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.11 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Raed's home form reads 9W 4D 14L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (8W 4D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.07 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 16W 13D 26L in their last 55 games (1.11 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 11D 27L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.15 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2024, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Raed
2
Draws
4
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 0, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 56%, Al Khaleej Saihat 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Al-Raed) and 33% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 33% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Al-Raed's recent games and 33% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Khaleej Saihat edge out Al-Raed 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Raed 0-1 at Al Raid Club Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.11 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.19 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 33% | Draw 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 37%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 67%, Al Khaleej Saihat 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.11 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.