Al-Fayha 1-2 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al Wehda Club at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Al-Fayha have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al Wehda Club 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al Wehda Club 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 53% | Al Wehda Club 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.25 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.824 / defence 1.097 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.627 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.465. Data: 55 Al-Fayha games / 55 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 41% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Al Wehda Club 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 40% | Al Wehda Club 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 41% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Fayha 1.25 / Al Wehda Club 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.824 / def 1.097 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.627 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al Wehda Club xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Fayha 1 - 2 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 41% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fayha 2W | Draws 1 | Al Wehda Club 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al Wehda Club's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
41%
2.44
30%
3.33
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.26
1.01
Al Wehda Club xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.01 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 55 games, going 16W 17D 22L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wehda Club sit at 1.07 PPG from 55 outings (16W 11D 28L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.18 PPG, Al Wehda Club on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 6W 10D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wehda Club have taken 0.78 points per game from 27 outings (6W 3D 18L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.16 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 16W 11D 28L in their last 55 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.04 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
1
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al Wehda Club have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Al-Fayha 0-0 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 41%, Al Wehda Club 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Fayha) and 41% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha have failed to score in 48% of games; Al Wehda Club in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 41% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 41% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Wehda Club defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al-Fayha 1-2 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.25 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.01 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Wehda Club outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.63 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 41% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 29%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Wehda Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 53%, Al Wehda Club 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.18 PPG, Al Wehda Club 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wehda Club win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.