Al-Raed 2-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Raed at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al Raid Club Stadium plays host to Al-Raed versus Al-Hazm in Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Form

Al-Raed (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Hazm's record over their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Al-Hazm away from home: 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Al-Raed. A 0.90 PPG lead over Al-Hazm (1.40 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 10 away games) — Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Hazm in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al-Raed, 2 for Al-Hazm and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Al-Raed 3–4 Al-Hazm — a Al-Hazm win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 54% versus Al-Hazm 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 62% | Al-Hazm 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.59 xG and Al-Hazm 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.819 / defence 0.972 | Al-Hazm attack 0.751 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.476. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.409 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Raed's projected output up. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 56 games and Al-Hazm's last 26.

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.06 | Draw 3.81 | Al-Hazm 3.97. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 70% (last 10 away games).

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