Al Taawon 4-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Taawon (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Hazm to Al Taawon Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Al Taawon have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Taawon are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Taawon, 0 for Al-Hazm and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 62% and Al-Hazm 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 50% | Al-Hazm 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.79 xG and Al-Hazm 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.020 / defence 0.968 | Al-Hazm attack 0.851 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.479. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Al Taawon games / 24 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hazm 4.00. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 70% | Al-Hazm 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Taawon 1.79 / Al-Hazm 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.020 / def 0.968 | Al-Hazm attack 0.851 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.479 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Al-Hazm xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Al Taawon 4 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 50% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taawon 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.02) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
50%
2.01
25%
3.96
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.01
1.22
Al-Hazm xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
4%
24.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.22 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 11W 7D 6L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 2W 9D 13L from 24 games, 0.62 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.67 PPG from 12 outings (6W 2D 4L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 7D 5L from 12 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.04 scored and 2.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 11W 7D 6L in their last 24 games (1.67 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 9D 13L in their last 24 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2024, when Al Taawon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Taawon
2
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Taawon at 67%, Al-Hazm at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Taawon) and 50% (Al-Hazm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Taawon's games and 75% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Taawon's matches and 50% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Hazm 4-0 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.79 xG and Al-Hazm 1.22 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hazm landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Al-Hazm attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 25%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 50%, Al-Hazm 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.