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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 35% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 31% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.80 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.570 / defence 0.779 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.994 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.336. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.570 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Al-Fayha games / 26 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 33% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 30% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

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