Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al-Fateh at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 15:25 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 1.30 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Al-Fayha hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al-Fateh, with 4 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Al-Fayha a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 51% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 48% | Al-Fateh 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.07 xG and Al-Fateh 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.547 / defence 0.781 | Al-Fateh attack 0.889 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.320. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.547 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Al-Fayha games / 59 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Fateh 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Fateh 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 20% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 15:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Fateh 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Al-Fayha 1.07 / Al-Fateh 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.547 / def 0.781 | Al-Fateh attack 0.889 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Al-Fateh xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 15:25 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha 1 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 38% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Fayha 3W | Draws 4 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.55x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
38%
2.60
31%
3.24
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.98
0.92
Al-Fateh xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.92 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fayha come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 21D 22L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.14 PPG from 59 outings (18W 13D 28L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.17 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Fayha's home form reads 6W 12D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.00 points per game from 29 outings (8W 5D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.42 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 75%.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 16W 21D 22L in their last 59 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 18W 13D 28L in their last 59 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.03 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 38%, Al-Fateh 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Al-Fayha) and 76% (Al-Fateh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Al-Fayha's games and 76% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 34% of Al-Fayha's matches and 76% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh finished level at 1-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.07 xG and Al-Fateh 0.92 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.55 / defence 0.78 against Al-Fateh attack 0.89 / defence 1.32, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Fateh 31%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 48%, Al-Fateh 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.17 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.