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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fayha host Al-Fateh at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 15:25 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 1.30 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

Al-Fayha hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al-Fateh, with 4 draws in between.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Al-Fayha a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 51% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 48% | Al-Fateh 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.07 xG and Al-Fateh 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.547 / defence 0.781 | Al-Fateh attack 0.889 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.320. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.547 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Al-Fayha games / 59 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Fateh 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Fateh 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 20% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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