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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ettifaq to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:05 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Al-Qadisiyah FC) versus 1.70 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% versus Al-Ettifaq 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.15 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.903 / defence 0.772 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.166 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.325. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 59 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ettifaq 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 30% | Al-Ettifaq 70%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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