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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

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Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to face Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 11 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Raed (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.60 PPG clear of Al-Raed in recent Pro League fixtures (2.00 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Raed lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Raed — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 57% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 57% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.91 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.746 / defence 1.186 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.125 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.312. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Al-Raed games / 60 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 19% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40%.

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