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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Fayha.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al-Fayha to Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 April 2025 at 17:20 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 6W 3D 1L at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Fayha and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Al-Fayha trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% versus Al-Fayha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Al-Fayha 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.80 xG and Al-Fayha 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.406 / defence 0.999 | Al-Fayha attack 0.915 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.305. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.406 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 61 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fayha 4.00. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al-Fayha 40%.

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