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Poisson model favours Al Taawon (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Okhdood face Al Taawon.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Al Taawon travel to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to take on Al Okhdood. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 April 2025, 16:55 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Okhdood's home record at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al Taawon have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Taawon are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al Taawon, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Al Okhdood.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Taawon winning.

It is worth noting that Al Taawon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Al Okhdood trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al Taawon trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 48% versus Al Taawon 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 52% | Al Taawon 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.79 xG and Al Taawon 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.800 / defence 1.106 | Al Taawon attack 0.879 / defence 0.684. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.315. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.684 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Al Okhdood games / 60 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taawon 2.08. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al Taawon 10% BTTS from recent games.

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