Al-Ettifaq 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ettifaq face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC make the trip to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Al-Ettifaq, 1.50 for Al-Ittihad FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 4 for Al-Ittihad FC and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Jan 2026, ended Al-Ettifaq 1–0 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ettifaq win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 57% and Al-Ittihad FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Ettifaq surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Al-Ittihad FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.40 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.969 / defence 1.005 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.098 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.429. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 66 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 65.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.04 | Draw 3.80 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 33 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.40 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.969 / def 1.005 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.098 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al-Ittihad FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday 14 May 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 33) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 33% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.10x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 66 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
33%
3.04
26%
3.80
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.97
1.58
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.58 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 27W 15D 23L from 65 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 41W 12D 12L across 65 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 12W 8D 12L from their last 32 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 15W 10D 7L across their last 32 away games, a 1.72 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.97 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 63%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Al-Ittihad FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 27W 15D 23L in their last 65 games (1.48 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 41W 12D 12L in their last 65 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC, the earliest from June 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 20 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won Al-Ittihad FC 0-5 Al-Ettifaq on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 1D 5L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 October 2026: Al-Ettifaq 1-4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 53%, Al-Ittihad FC 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ettifaq) and 56% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 72% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 72% of Al-Ittihad FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ettifaq 1-3 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.40 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al-Ittihad FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.48. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.