NEOM 1-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEOM host Al-Ettifaq at King Khalid Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NEOM — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
NEOM's home record at King Khalid Sports City: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NEOM at 1.20 PPG versus Al-Ettifaq's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, NEOM have won 0, Al-Ettifaq 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
NEOM in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEOM 64% versus Al-Ettifaq 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 54% | Al-Ettifaq 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.22 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.826 / defence 1.047 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.118 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.399. Data: 33 NEOM games / 67 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 46%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 2.17. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: NEOM 50% | Al-Ettifaq 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG NEOM 1.22 / Al-Ettifaq 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.826 / def 1.047 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.118 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Al-Ettifaq xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at King Khalid Sports City.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq?
NEOM 1 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 28% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both NEOM and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (1 meetings): NEOM 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are NEOM and Al-Ettifaq in?
NEOM (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NEOM's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus NEOM's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
28%
3.63
26%
3.81
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
NEOM xG
Total xG
2.86
1.64
Al-Ettifaq xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
5%
18.64
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for NEOM and 1.64 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, NEOM have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 12W 8D 13L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 14W 7D 12L from 33 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEOM on 1.33 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, NEOM have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 7W 1D 8L from 16 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
NEOM are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.52 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 14W 7D 12L in their last 33 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 1.31 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEOM and Al-Ettifaq runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
NEOM
2
Draws
0
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Ettifaq?
From 2 meetings on record, NEOM have won 0, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when NEOM 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 62%, Al-Ettifaq 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for NEOM and 62% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of NEOM's games and 50% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of NEOM's matches and 62% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do NEOM and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEOM and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 34, as NEOM and Al-Ettifaq drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.22 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.64 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.12 / defence 0.97, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 46%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 54%, Al-Ettifaq 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEOM 1.33 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.