🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 6W 4D 0L at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favour (2.10 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Hazm in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W, Al-Hazm 0W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 5–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 69% and Al-Hazm 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Al-Hazm 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.42 xG and Al-Hazm 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.411 / defence 0.776 | Al-Hazm attack 0.729 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.429. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 32 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Draw 18% | Al-Hazm 10%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Hazm 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights