Nizhny Novgorod 0-0 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Khimki travel to Stadion Nizhny Novgorod to take on Nizhny Novgorod. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nizhny Novgorod stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nizhny Novgorod have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Khimki have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Khimki have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nizhny Novgorod at 1.30 PPG versus Khimki's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nizhny Novgorod register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Khimki in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nizhny Novgorod have won 0, Khimki 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nizhny Novgorod in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Khimki in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 58% versus Khimki 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 46% | Khimki 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.21 xG and Khimki 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.752 / defence 1.085 | Khimki attack 0.963 / defence 1.508. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.192. Nizhny Novgorod's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.508 — this is suppressing Nizhny Novgorod's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Nizhny Novgorod games / 24 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 34% | Draw 30% | Khimki 36%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Khimki 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khimki as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Nizhny Novgorod 60% | Khimki 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 34% | Draw 30% | Khimki 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.21 / Khimki 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.752 / def 1.085 | Khimki attack 0.963 / def 1.508 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Khimki (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Khimki xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki?
Nizhny Novgorod 0 - 0 Khimki.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 34% chance of winning, Khimki a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Khimki?
Record (1 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 0W | Draws 1 | Khimki 0W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Khimki in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Khimki (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nizhny Novgorod's attack at 0.75x the league average against Khimki's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Nizhny Novgorod's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
34%
2.93
30%
3.34
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.45
1.25
Khimki xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.25 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nizhny Novgorod's recent record stands at 7W 6D 11L from 24 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khimki, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 10L across 24 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nizhny Novgorod on 1.12 PPG, Khimki on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nizhny Novgorod have managed 3W 2D 7L from 12 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khimki's away record stands at 3W 2D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.08 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Khimki in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while Khimki have gone 5W 9D 10L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or Khimki away?
Nizhny Novgorod's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 0.92 PPG; Khimki away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Khimki in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jul 2022, when Khimki won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nizhny Novgorod's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nizhny Novgorod
2
Draws
2
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 2, Khimki have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Khimki 2-0 Nizhny Novgorod.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nizhny Novgorod see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Khimki see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 58%, Khimki 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 67% (Khimki). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khimki in 33%; Khimki in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 50% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's matches and 67% of Khimki's.
Stalemate at Nizhny Novgorod's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nizhny Novgorod and Khimki finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.21 xG and Khimki 1.25 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Khimki landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.75 / defence 1.08 against Khimki attack 0.96 / defence 1.51, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 34% | Draw 30% | Khimki 36%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 46%, Khimki 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Khimki's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 1.12 PPG, Khimki 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.