Arsenal Tula 1-2 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Rostov make the trip to Stadion Arsenal to face Arsenal Tula in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Arsenal Tula's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal Tula's home record at Stadion Arsenal: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Arsenal Tula are significantly better at Stadion Arsenal than their overall form suggests.
FC Rostov have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Rostov's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Arsenal Tula against 1.20 for FC Rostov. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Arsenal Tula register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Rostov in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Arsenal Tula 0W, FC Rostov 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–4 with FC Rostov winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Arsenal Tula — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arsenal Tula 58% and FC Rostov 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Arsenal Tula 71% | FC Rostov 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal Tula 1.06 xG and FC Rostov 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal Tula attack 0.829 / defence 1.263 | FC Rostov attack 0.929 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.055 / away 1.190. FC Rostov bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Arsenal Tula's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Arsenal Tula games / 24 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 27% | Draw 29% | FC Rostov 43%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal Tula 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | FC Rostov 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Rostov as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Rostov if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal Tula 70% | FC Rostov 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Arsenal • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 27% | Draw 29% | FC Rostov 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Arsenal Tula 1.06 / FC Rostov 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal Tula attack 0.829 / def 1.263 | FC Rostov attack 0.929 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.055 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Arsenal Tula xG
Expected Goals
1.40
FC Rostov xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov kick off?
Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stadion Arsenal.
What was the final score in Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov?
Arsenal Tula 1 - 2 FC Rostov.
Where is Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arsenal.
What competition is Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov part of?
Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal Tula a 27% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Arsenal Tula and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and FC Rostov?
Record (1 meetings): Arsenal Tula 0W | Draws 0 | FC Rostov 1W.
What form are Arsenal Tula and FC Rostov in?
Arsenal Tula (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. FC Rostov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Arsenal Tula's attack at 0.83x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.93x) against Arsenal Tula's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
27%
3.67
29%
3.41
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Arsenal Tula xG
Total xG
2.45
1.40
FC Rostov xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.83
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Arsenal Tula and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.40 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Arsenal Tula's recent record stands at 5W 6D 13L from 24 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Rostov, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 10L across 24 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Arsenal Tula against 1.17 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Arsenal Tula have managed 3W 5D 3L from 11 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Rostov's away record stands at 3W 5D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Arsenal Tula are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.62 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 79%.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal Tula
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal Tula and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Arsenal Tula have gone 5W 6D 13L in their last 24 games (0.88 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal Tula at home or FC Rostov away?
Arsenal Tula's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal Tula at home: 1.27 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arsenal Tula
0
Draws
2
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and FC Rostov?
From 2 meetings on record, Arsenal Tula have won 0, FC Rostov have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal Tula and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when Arsenal Tula 1-2 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal Tula and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arsenal Tula see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Arsenal Tula, 91% for FC Rostov — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Arsenal Tula) and 54% (FC Rostov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal Tula have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal Tula home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal Tula play FC Rostov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Arsenal Tula's games and 91% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arsenal Tula vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Arsenal Tula's matches and 54% of FC Rostov's.
Do Arsenal Tula and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Arsenal Tula have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Rostov edge out Arsenal Tula 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Arsenal Tula 1-2 at Stadion Arsenal, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal Tula 1.06 xG and FC Rostov 1.40 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal Tula attack 0.83 / defence 1.26 against FC Rostov attack 0.93 / defence 1.21, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal Tula 27% | Draw 29% | FC Rostov 43%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal Tula 71%, FC Rostov 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC Rostov's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arsenal Tula 0.88 PPG, FC Rostov 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.