Khimki 4-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khimki vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Khimki welcome CSKA Moscow to Arena Khimki. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khimki — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khimki have posted 1W 7D 2L at Arena Khimki — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, CSKA Moscow have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. CSKA Moscow's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Khimki's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Khimki, 0 for CSKA Moscow and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Khimki in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
CSKA Moscow in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 52% versus CSKA Moscow 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 52% | CSKA Moscow 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 0.80 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.762 / defence 1.183 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.952 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.008 / away 1.219. Khimki's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Khimki games / 23 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 21% | Draw 30% | CSKA Moscow 49%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | CSKA Moscow 2.04. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Khimki 50% | CSKA Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 21% | Draw 30% | CSKA Moscow 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Khimki 0.80 / CSKA Moscow 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.762 / def 1.183 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.952 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.008 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.37
CSKA Moscow xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Khimki vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Khimki 4 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Khimki vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Khimki vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 21% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Khimki and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and CSKA Moscow?
Record (1 meetings): Khimki 0W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 0W.
What form are Khimki and CSKA Moscow in?
Khimki (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Khimki's attack at 0.76x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
21%
4.88
30%
3.29
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.17
1.37
CSKA Moscow xG
4.88
21%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
5%
19.25
22%
4.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Khimki and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Khimki and 1.37 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Khimki have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 4W 9D 10L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 13W 4D 6L from 23 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, CSKA Moscow are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khimki.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Khimki have posted 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (1W 7D 3L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 1D 4L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khimki are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.48 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 4W 9D 10L in their last 23 games (0.91 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 13W 4D 6L in their last 23 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 0.91 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Khimki or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khimki and CSKA Moscow runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: CSKA Moscow have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2023, when CSKA Moscow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khimki's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
1
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and CSKA Moscow?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when CSKA Moscow 1-0 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 54%, CSKA Moscow 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Khimki) and 46% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 36%; Khimki have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Khimki's recent matches and 46% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khimki vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Khimki's recent games and 46% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khimki cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over CSKA Moscow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki beat CSKA Moscow 4-2 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 0.80 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.37 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Khimki beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.76 / defence 1.18 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 21% | Draw 30% | CSKA Moscow 49%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Khimki win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 52%, CSKA Moscow 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Khimki winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khimki (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.