Nizhny Novgorod 0-1 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Nizhny Novgorod welcome Dynamo to Stadion Nizhny Novgorod. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nizhny Novgorod have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dynamo have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Dynamo's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Nizhny Novgorod's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nizhny Novgorod register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Dynamo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, Dynamo 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Nizhny Novgorod winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nizhny Novgorod in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Dynamo in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 61% versus Dynamo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 48% | Dynamo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 0.90 xG and Dynamo 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.860 / defence 1.137 | Dynamo attack 1.243 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.008 / away 1.219. Dynamo have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Nizhny Novgorod games / 23 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 18% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 56%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Dynamo 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Nizhny Novgorod 70% | Dynamo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 18% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 0.90 / Dynamo 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.860 / def 1.137 | Dynamo attack 1.243 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.008 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Dynamo xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo?
Nizhny Novgorod 0 - 1 Dynamo.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 18% chance of winning, Dynamo a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Dynamo?
Record (1 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 1W | Draws 0 | Dynamo 0W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Dynamo in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Dynamo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nizhny Novgorod's attack at 0.86x the league average against Dynamo's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Nizhny Novgorod's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
18%
5.46
26%
3.84
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.62
1.72
Dynamo xG
5.46
18%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
3%
30.57
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.5 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.72 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nizhny Novgorod's recent record stands at 7W 6D 10L from 23 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo, meanwhile, have gone 14W 4D 5L across 23 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nizhny Novgorod heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nizhny Novgorod have managed 3W 2D 6L from 11 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo's away record stands at 8W 1D 2L across 11 trips, a 2.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.83 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nizhny Novgorod have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 14W 4D 5L in their last 23 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or Dynamo away?
Dynamo's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.00 PPG; Dynamo away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Dynamo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nizhny Novgorod and Dynamo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Dynamo won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nizhny Novgorod's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nizhny Novgorod
4
Draws
5
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Dynamo?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, Dynamo have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-1 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nizhny Novgorod see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 64%, Dynamo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 64% (Dynamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play Dynamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Nizhny Novgorod's games and 54% of Dynamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Nizhny Novgorod's matches and 64% of Dynamo's.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and Dynamo tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out Nizhny Novgorod 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Nizhny Novgorod 0-1 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 0.90 xG and Dynamo 1.72 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nizhny Novgorod fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Dynamo attack 1.24 / defence 1.04, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 18% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 56%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 48%, Dynamo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.