Spartak Moscow 1-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs Rubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Spartak Moscow welcome Rubin to Otkritie Bank Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spartak Moscow stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow's home record at Otkritie Bank Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rubin — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Rubin have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Spartak Moscow are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Spartak Moscow, 1 for Rubin and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Rubin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Rubin in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 54% versus Rubin 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 42% | Rubin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.85 xG and Rubin 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.025 / defence 1.145 | Rubin attack 0.906 / defence 1.696. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.194. Rubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.696 — this is suppressing Spartak Moscow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Spartak Moscow games / 24 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 51% | Draw 24% | Rubin 25%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Rubin 4.00. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 70% | Rubin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Otkritie Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 51% | Draw 24% | Rubin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.85 / Rubin 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.025 / def 1.145 | Rubin attack 0.906 / def 1.696 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Rubin xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Rubin kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Rubin kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Rubin?
Spartak Moscow 1 - 1 Rubin.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Rubin part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 51% chance of winning, Rubin a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Rubin?
Record (1 meetings): Spartak Moscow 0W | Draws 0 | Rubin 1W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Rubin in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Rubin (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spartak Moscow's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Rubin's defensive record (1.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Rubin's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.15
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
3.09
1.24
Rubin xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
4%
25.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.24 for Rubin, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spartak Moscow come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 6D 10L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rubin sit at 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (7W 4D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.25 PPG, Rubin on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spartak Moscow's home form reads 5W 3D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Rubin have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.29 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rubin in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Rubin in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Rubin have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Rubin away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 1.50 PPG; Rubin away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spartak Moscow and Rubin runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Spartak Moscow have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2023, when Spartak Moscow won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Rubin specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Spartak Moscow
1
Draws
2
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Rubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 5, Rubin have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Spartak Moscow 2-1 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Rubin?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spartak Moscow at 67%, Rubin at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Spartak Moscow) and 58% (Rubin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Rubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Spartak Moscow's games and 67% of Rubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 58% of Rubin's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Rubin tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rubin in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spartak Moscow and Rubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Otkritie Bank Arena, Regular Season - 25, as Spartak Moscow and Rubin drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.85 xG and Rubin 1.24 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Spartak Moscow fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.02 / defence 1.15 against Rubin attack 0.91 / defence 1.70, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 51% | Draw 24% | Rubin 25%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 42%, Rubin 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Rubin's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.25 PPG, Rubin 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.