FC UFA 1-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC UFA host CSKA Moscow at BetBoom Аrena in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC UFA have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC UFA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BetBoom Аrena, FC UFA have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, CSKA Moscow stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour CSKA Moscow — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC UFA, 1 for CSKA Moscow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with CSKA Moscow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FC UFA trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
CSKA Moscow trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC UFA 62% versus CSKA Moscow 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC UFA 38% | CSKA Moscow 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC UFA 1.17 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC UFA attack 0.832 / defence 1.137 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.017 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.200. CSKA Moscow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing FC UFA's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 FC UFA games / 24 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC UFA 31% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 41%. Fair-value odds: FC UFA 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | CSKA Moscow 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: FC UFA 70% | CSKA Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: BetBoom Аrena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC UFA 31% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG FC UFA 1.17 / CSKA Moscow 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: FC UFA attack 0.832 / def 1.137 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.017 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
FC UFA xG
Expected Goals
1.39
CSKA Moscow xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at BetBoom Аrena.
What was the final score in FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow?
FC UFA 1 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at BetBoom Аrena.
What competition is FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow part of?
FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC UFA a 31% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC UFA and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC UFA and CSKA Moscow?
Record (1 meetings): FC UFA 0W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 1W.
What form are FC UFA and CSKA Moscow in?
FC UFA (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC UFA's attack rating (0.83) and CSKA Moscow's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus FC UFA's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
31%
3.19
27%
3.68
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
FC UFA xG
Total xG
2.56
1.39
CSKA Moscow xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC UFA and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for FC UFA and 1.39 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC UFA come into this having played 24 games, going 4W 9D 11L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for FC UFA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, CSKA Moscow sit at 1.79 PPG from 24 outings (13W 4D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of FC UFA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC UFA's home form reads 2W 6D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, CSKA Moscow have taken 1.58 points per game from 12 outings (6W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC UFA are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC UFA have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC UFA
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC UFA and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
FC UFA have gone 4W 9D 11L in their last 24 games (0.88 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 13W 4D 7L in their last 24 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC UFA at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC UFA at home: 1.00 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.58 PPG.
Have FC UFA or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC UFA have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC UFA and CSKA Moscow runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC UFA
1
Draws
1
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC UFA and CSKA Moscow?
From 2 meetings on record, FC UFA have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC UFA and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when FC UFA 1-1 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between FC UFA and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC UFA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC UFA 75%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FC UFA) and 50% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC UFA home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC UFA play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC UFA's games and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC UFA vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC UFA's recent games and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC UFA and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
FC UFA have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC UFA and CSKA Moscow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BetBoom Аrena, Regular Season - 25, as FC UFA and CSKA Moscow drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC UFA 1.17 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.39 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC UFA attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.02 / defence 1.33, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC UFA 31% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 41%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC UFA 38%, CSKA Moscow 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC UFA's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.