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Poisson rates Guimaraes at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guimaraes vs Moreirense encounter.

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Match Analysis

Guimaraes host Moreirense at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 January 2026 at 20:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guimaraes stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guimaraes's home record at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Moreirense have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Moreirense have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guimaraes 1.40 PPG, Moreirense 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Guimaraes have won 4, Moreirense 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Moreirense winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Guimaraes in-play tendencies (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Moreirense in-play tendencies (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 40% versus Moreirense 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 45% | Moreirense 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 1.41 xG and Moreirense 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 0.954 / defence 1.012 | Moreirense attack 0.977 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.237. Data: 53 Guimaraes games / 53 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guimaraes 41% | Draw 26% | Moreirense 33%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Moreirense 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guimaraes are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guimaraes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Guimaraes 60% | Moreirense 40%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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