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Poisson model rates Estoril at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Guimaraes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Guimaraes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 24 January 2026 at 20:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Estoril have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Guimaraes's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Guimaraes have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Estoril, 1.40 for Guimaraes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 9 meetings, Guimaraes have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Estoril's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with Guimaraes winning.

It is worth noting that Guimaraes have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Estoril — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Guimaraes — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 56% versus Guimaraes 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 67% | Guimaraes 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.41 xG and Guimaraes 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.248 / defence 1.046 | Guimaraes attack 0.694 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.285. Data: 52 Estoril games / 52 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Estoril 48% | Draw 27% | Guimaraes 25%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Guimaraes 4.00. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 60% | Guimaraes 10% BTTS from recent games.

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