🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Moreirense at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Moreirense welcome GIL Vicente to Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Moreirense have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Moreirense have posted 6W 2D 2L at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Moreirense are significantly better at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas than their overall form suggests.

GIL Vicente — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.

GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Moreirense at 1.20 PPG versus GIL Vicente's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Moreirense, 2 for GIL Vicente and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with GIL Vicente winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Moreirense trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

GIL Vicente trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 56% versus GIL Vicente 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 54% | GIL Vicente 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.28 xG and GIL Vicente 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.906 / defence 1.044 | GIL Vicente attack 0.919 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.250. Data: 54 Moreirense games / 54 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Moreirense 38% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 35%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | GIL Vicente 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Moreirense as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Moreirense 60% | GIL Vicente 40%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights