Casa Pia 2-1 FC Porto – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Porto (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Casa Pia face FC Porto.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior plays host to Casa Pia versus FC Porto in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Monday 2 February 2026 at 20:45 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Porto's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for FC Porto, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Porto's away record: 10W 0D 0L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, FC Porto are the stronger side — 2.30 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to FC Porto, who have claimed 6 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–4 with FC Porto winning.
It is worth noting that FC Porto have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Porto half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 55% versus FC Porto 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 47% | FC Porto 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.66 xG and FC Porto 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.841 / defence 1.321 | FC Porto attack 1.266 / defence 0.510. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.260. FC Porto's defence strength of 0.510 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Porto have an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — the away xG of 2.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Casa Pia games / 53 FC Porto games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 10% | Draw 19% | FC Porto 71%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 10.00 | Draw 5.26 | FC Porto 1.41. The model has a clear lean to FC Porto (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Porto at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 60% | FC Porto 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs FC Porto | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Monday 2 Feb 2026, 20:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 10% | Draw 19% | FC Porto 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 42% | xG Casa Pia 0.66 / FC Porto 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.841 / def 1.321 | FC Porto attack 1.266 / def 0.510 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
2.11
FC Porto xG
42%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs FC Porto kick off?
Casa Pia vs FC Porto kicked off at 20:45 on Monday 2 February 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
Casa Pia 2 - 1 FC Porto.
Where is Casa Pia vs FC Porto being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs FC Porto part of?
Casa Pia vs FC Porto is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 10% chance of winning, FC Porto a 71% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Casa Pia and FC Porto will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs FC Porto have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and FC Porto?
Record (7 meetings): Casa Pia 0W | Draws 1 | FC Porto 6W.
What form are Casa Pia and FC Porto in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. FC Porto (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against FC Porto's defensive record (0.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.66. Flip it around — FC Porto's attack (1.27x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 2.11.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 1-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
10%
9.62
19%
5.39
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
0 – 3
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.77
2.11
FC Porto xG
9.62
10%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
12%
8.24
52%
1.93
Win to Nil
1%
79.23
37%
2.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 13.2 | 13.9 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and FC Porto expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Casa Pia and 2.11 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Casa Pia come into this having played 53 games, going 15W 15D 23L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Porto sit at 2.38 PPG from 53 outings (40W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Porto is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Porto carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Casa Pia's home form reads 8W 9D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Porto have taken 2.15 points per game from 26 outings (18W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Casa Pia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; FC Porto are on 1.98 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: FC Porto in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
FC Porto
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and FC Porto in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 15W 15D 23L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while FC Porto have gone 40W 6D 7L in their last 53 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or FC Porto away?
FC Porto's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.27 PPG; FC Porto away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or FC Porto been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, FC Porto in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Porto won 4-0 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Porto — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
1
Draws
6
FC Porto
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and FC Porto?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, FC Porto have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and FC Porto last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Casa Pia 2-1 FC Porto.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and FC Porto?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 62%, FC Porto 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Casa Pia) and 50% (FC Porto).
On the defensive side: FC Porto in 54%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / FC Porto away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play FC Porto?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 31% of FC Porto's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs FC Porto usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Casa Pia's recent games and 50% of FC Porto's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and FC Porto tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Porto in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Casa Pia defy the odds to beat FC Porto 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat FC Porto 2-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.66 xG and FC Porto 2.11 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Porto landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.84 / defence 1.32 against FC Porto attack 1.27 / defence 0.51, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 10% | Draw 19% | FC Porto 71%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Casa Pia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 47%, FC Porto 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC Porto's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Casa Pia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Porto (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.