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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Benfica (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tondela face Benfica.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Tondela welcome Benfica to Estádio João Cardoso. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 20:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Tondela — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Tondela's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 6L across 9 games at Estádio João Cardoso this term (0.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.

Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Benfica have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Tondela's 0 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Benfica winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Tondela trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 63% of games.

Benfica trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tondela 32% versus Benfica 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tondela 58% | Benfica 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 0.65 xG and Benfica 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 0.665 / defence 1.109 | Benfica attack 1.387 / defence 0.632. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.260. Tondela's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Benfica's defence strength of 0.632 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.387 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Tondela games / 53 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tondela 12% | Draw 20% | Benfica 68%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 8.33 | Draw 5.00 | Benfica 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Tondela 33% | Benfica 40% BTTS from recent games.

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