Famalicao 3-1 AVS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Famalicao (74%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Famalicao face AVS.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Famalicao host AVS at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao in Primeira Liga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Monday 9 February 2026 at 18:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Famalicao stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Famalicao have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AVS — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
On the road, AVS have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
Famalicao are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Famalicao: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for AVS, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Famalicao 1–0 AVS — a Famalicao win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Famalicao and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Famalicao in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
AVS in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 46% versus AVS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 48% | AVS 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 2.62 xG and AVS 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.119 / defence 0.831 | AVS attack 0.875 / defence 1.525. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.243. AVS's defence rating of 1.525 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Famalicao's projected output up. Data: built from Famalicao's last 54 games and AVS's last 54.
Result probabilities: Famalicao 74% | Draw 15% | AVS 11%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.35 | Draw 6.52 | AVS 9.41. The model has a clear lean to Famalicao (74%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Famalicao's last 10 home games and AVS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Famalicao 30% (last 10 home games) | AVS 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs AVS | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Monday 9 February 2026 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 74% | Draw 15% | AVS 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Famalicao 2.62 / AVS 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.119 / def 0.831 | AVS attack 0.875 / def 1.525 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.90
AVS xG
55%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Famalicao vs AVS FAQs
What time does Famalicao vs AVS kick off?
Famalicao vs AVS kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Monday 9 February 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs AVS?
Famalicao 3 - 1 AVS.
Where is Famalicao vs AVS being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs AVS part of?
Famalicao vs AVS is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs AVS?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 74% chance of winning, AVS a 11% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs AVS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Famalicao and AVS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Famalicao vs AVS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (1.12) and AVS's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 2.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AVS's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Famalicao's last 54 games and AVS's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
74%
1.35
15%
6.52
11%
9.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Famalicao xG
Total xG
3.52
0.90
AVS xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.52
15%
Draw
9.41
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
7%
13.72
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
1%
129.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Famalicao vs AVS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs AVS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Famalicao and AVS expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.90 for AVS, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs AVS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Famalicao's recent record stands at 20W 16D 18L from 54 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
AVS, meanwhile, have gone 6W 17D 31L across 54 games — 0.65 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Famalicao by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AVS heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 10W 9D 7L from their last 26 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AVS's away record stands at 2W 9D 15L across their last 26 away games, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; AVS are on 0.76 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
AVS
Blended
Famalicao (Home) vs AVS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Famalicao
Blended
AVS
Blended
❓ Famalicao vs AVS Form FAQs
What form are Famalicao and AVS in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 20W 16D 18L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while AVS have gone 6W 17D 31L in their last 54 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or AVS away?
Famalicao's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.50 PPG; AVS away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Famalicao or AVS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, AVS in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 9 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Famalicao have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Mar 2025, when Famalicao won Famalicao 4-1 AVS.
Famalicao's record when hosting AVS specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Famalicao
0
Draws
0
AVS
Recent Meetings
❓ Famalicao vs AVS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and AVS?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Famalicao have won 4, AVS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and AVS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2026: Famalicao 3-1 AVS.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and AVS?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 38%, AVS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Famalicao) and 54% (AVS).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 31% of games; AVS in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / AVS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Famalicao vs AVS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Famalicao and AVS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Famalicao's recent matches and 50% of AVS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Famalicao and AVS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Famalicao's recent games and 54% of AVS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and AVS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Famalicao's recent matches and 69% of AVS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AVS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat AVS 3-1 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 2.62 xG and AVS 0.90 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.12 / defence 0.83 against AVS attack 0.88 / defence 1.52, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 74% | Draw 15% | AVS 11%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 48%, AVS 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
AVS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.65. Form held, and they took the win. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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