Casa Pia 2-1 FC Porto – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours FC Porto (71%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Casa Pia face FC Porto.

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Full Analysis

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior plays host to Casa Pia versus FC Porto in Primeira Liga (matchday 20). Kick-off: Monday 2 February 2026 at 20:45 UK time.

Form

Casa Pia (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Casa Pia at home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

FC Porto's record over their last 10 games: 10W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

FC Porto's away record over their last 10 away games: 10W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (80%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On a straight form reading, FC Porto are the stronger side — 2.30 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head sample leans to FC Porto, who have 6 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Casa Pia 0–4 FC Porto — a FC Porto win.

FC Porto have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

FC Porto half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 55% versus FC Porto 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 47% | FC Porto 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Casa Pia surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while FC Porto have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.66 xG and FC Porto 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.841 / defence 1.321 | FC Porto attack 1.266 / defence 0.510. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.260. FC Porto bring a tight defence (rating 0.510, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Casa Pia's projected output down. FC Porto have an above-average attack rating of 1.266, which lifts their away xG to 2.11. Casa Pia's defence rating of 1.321 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Porto's projected output up. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 53 games and FC Porto's last 53.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 10% | Draw 19% | FC Porto 71%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 9.62 | Draw 5.39 | FC Porto 1.41. The model has a clear lean to FC Porto (71%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Porto at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Casa Pia's last 10 home games and FC Porto's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Porto 20% (last 10 away games).

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