🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours FC Porto (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Porto face GIL Vicente.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

FC Porto and GIL Vicente meet at Estádio Do Dragão in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 January 2026 at 20:15 UTC.

Form

FC Porto (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Porto, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estádio Do Dragão, FC Porto have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Do Dragão. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

GIL Vicente have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.

GIL Vicente away from home this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form ledger tips toward FC Porto. A 1.50 PPG lead over GIL Vicente (3.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

Historically, FC Porto have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with GIL Vicente managing just 2 victories and 2 draws shared.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with FC Porto winning.

The historical record gives FC Porto a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

FC Porto goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.

GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Porto 35% versus GIL Vicente 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Porto 52% | GIL Vicente 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Porto 1.27 xG and GIL Vicente 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Porto attack 1.071 / defence 0.644 | GIL Vicente attack 0.974 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.245. GIL Vicente's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Porto's defence rating of 0.644 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 FC Porto games / 52 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Porto 48% | Draw 29% | GIL Vicente 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Porto 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | GIL Vicente 4.35. FC Porto hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Porto are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Porto if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: FC Porto 30% | GIL Vicente 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights