Casa Pia 3-3 AVS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs AVS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Casa Pia welcome AVS to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 January 2026 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's home record at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AVS — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for AVS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AVS away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Casa Pia 0.60 PPG, AVS 0.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Casa Pia, 0 for AVS and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Casa Pia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Casa Pia in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
AVS in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 54% versus AVS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 46% | AVS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.81 xG and AVS 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.822 / defence 1.164 | AVS attack 0.671 / defence 1.580. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.278. AVS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.580 — this is suppressing Casa Pia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Casa Pia games / 52 AVS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 56% | Draw 23% | AVS 21%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | AVS 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Casa Pia (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Casa Pia at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 60% | AVS 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs AVS | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 56% | Draw 23% | AVS 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Casa Pia 1.81 / AVS 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.822 / def 1.164 | AVS attack 0.671 / def 1.580 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
AVS xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs AVS kick off?
Casa Pia vs AVS kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 23 January 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs AVS?
Casa Pia 3 - 3 AVS.
Where is Casa Pia vs AVS being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs AVS part of?
Casa Pia vs AVS is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs AVS?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 56% chance of winning, AVS a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs AVS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Casa Pia and AVS will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs AVS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and AVS?
Record (3 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 2 | AVS 0W.
What form are Casa Pia and AVS in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. AVS (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Casa Pia's attack rating (0.82) and AVS's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AVS's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
56%
1.77
23%
4.36
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.81
1.00
AVS xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
3%
29.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs AVS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and AVS expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.00 for AVS, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs AVS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Casa Pia have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 15W 14D 23L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AVS's form line: 6W 16D 30L from 52 games, 0.65 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for AVS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Casa Pia are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AVS.
Venue Form
On home soil, Casa Pia have posted 1.28 PPG from 25 outings (8W 8D 9L).
On the road, AVS have gone 2W 8D 15L from 25 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; AVS are on 0.73 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
AVS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and AVS in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 15W 14D 23L in their last 52 games (1.13 PPG), while AVS have gone 6W 16D 30L in their last 52 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or AVS away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.28 PPG; AVS away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Casa Pia's record when hosting AVS specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
0
AVS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and AVS?
From 4 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, AVS have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and AVS last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Casa Pia 3-3 AVS.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and AVS?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 60%, AVS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Casa Pia) and 52% (AVS).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 28% of games; AVS in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / AVS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play AVS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 48% of AVS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs AVS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Casa Pia's recent games and 52% of AVS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and AVS tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AVS in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia and AVS share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia and AVS finished level at 3-3 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.81 xG and AVS 1.00 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AVS outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against AVS attack 0.67 / defence 1.58, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 56% | Draw 23% | AVS 21%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 46%, AVS 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
AVS's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Casa Pia arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AVS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.