Wisla Plock 0-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 2 as Wisla Plock welcome Widzew Łódź to Orlen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 July 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Orlen Stadion, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Wisla Plock) versus 1.50 (Widzew Łódź). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Wisla Plock's 10% rate and Widzew Łódź's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 2 for Widzew Łódź and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Widzew Łódź winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wisla Plock trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Widzew Łódź trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 49% versus Widzew Łódź 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 37% | Widzew Łódź 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.04 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.791 / defence 1.083 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.885 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.112. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Wisla Plock games / 35 Widzew Łódź games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 34% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 35%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Widzew Łódź 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 10% | Widzew Łódź 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 34% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Wisla Plock 1.04 / Widzew Łódź 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.791 / def 1.083 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.885 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Widzew Łódź xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 31 July 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Wisla Plock 0 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 34% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź?
Record (4 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 2 | Widzew Łódź 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.79x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
34%
2.93
31%
3.26
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.11
1.07
Widzew Łódź xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.07 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 13W 10D 12L from 35 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 16L across 35 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.40 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 8W 3D 6L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 3W 2D 12L across 17 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.23 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 13W 10D 12L in their last 35 games (1.40 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 7D 16L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.59 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Wisla Plock
3
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź?
From 5 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 0, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 24%, Widzew Łódź 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Wisla Plock) and 47% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 47% of games; Widzew Łódź in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 47% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 47% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wisla Plock's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź finished level at 0-0 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.04 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.07 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 34% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 35%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 37%, Widzew Łódź 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.40 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.