Motor Lublin 1-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 37%, yet in-form Jagiellonia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Motor Lublin Arena to face Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 31 July 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Motor Lublin (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Motor Lublin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Motor Lublin Arena, Motor Lublin have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jagiellonia have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Jagiellonia arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Jagiellonia, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 1–4 with Jagiellonia winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jagiellonia have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Motor Lublin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Motor Lublin 60% and Jagiellonia 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 51% | Jagiellonia 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.29 xG and Jagiellonia 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 1.018 / defence 1.040 | Jagiellonia attack 1.100 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.112. Data: 35 Motor Lublin games / 35 Jagiellonia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 37% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 36%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Jagiellonia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Motor Lublin are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jagiellonia (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Motor Lublin 60% | Jagiellonia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Motor Lublin Arena • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jul 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 37% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Motor Lublin 1.29 / Jagiellonia 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 1.018 / def 1.040 | Jagiellonia attack 1.100 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Jagiellonia xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 31 July 2026 at Motor Lublin Arena.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia?
Motor Lublin 1 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Motor Lublin Arena.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia part of?
Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 37% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia?
Record (4 meetings): Motor Lublin 0W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 3W.
What form are Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia in?
Motor Lublin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Motor Lublin's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.10x) against Motor Lublin's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
37%
2.72
27%
3.65
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.57
1.27
Jagiellonia xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.27 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Motor Lublin have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 10W 14D 11L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Motor Lublin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia's form line: 16W 11D 8L from 35 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Jagiellonia are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Motor Lublin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Motor Lublin have posted 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (5W 9D 3L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 6W 8D 3L from 17 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Motor Lublin are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.63 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Motor Lublin have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 10W 14D 11L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 16W 11D 8L in their last 35 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Jagiellonia away?
Jagiellonia's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.41 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Motor Lublin or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Jagiellonia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 3-0 on 16 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Motor Lublin have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Motor Lublin
1
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia?
From 5 meetings on record, Motor Lublin have won 0, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Motor Lublin 1-2 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 59%, Jagiellonia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Motor Lublin) and 53% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Motor Lublin play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Motor Lublin's games and 59% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 53% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Motor Lublin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Motor Lublin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Motor Lublin 1-2 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.29 xG and Jagiellonia 1.27 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Jagiellonia attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 37% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 36%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 51%, Jagiellonia 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.