Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Monday 3 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1W 6D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.10 for Pogon Szczecin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Pogon Szczecin, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Pogon Szczecin have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 49% versus Pogon Szczecin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 46% | Pogon Szczecin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.29 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.893 / defence 0.981 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.997 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.159. Data: 35 Cracovia Krakow games / 35 Pogon Szczecin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 39% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 32%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Pogon Szczecin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Pogon Szczecin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 3 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 39% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.29 / Pogon Szczecin 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.893 / def 0.981 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.997 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Pogon Szczecin xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 3 August 2026 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 39% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (9 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 3 | Pogon Szczecin 5W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.00x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.41
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.42
1.13
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.13 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 9W 16D 10L from 35 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 16L across 35 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.29 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 5W 9D 3L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 4W 3D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.34 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 9W 16D 10L in their last 35 games (1.23 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 13W 6D 16L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.41 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 1-5 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
6
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 59%, Pogon Szczecin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Cracovia Krakow) and 41% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 53% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 41% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Cracovia Krakow 0-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.29 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.13 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 39% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 32%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 46%, Pogon Szczecin 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.23 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.